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Urban futures
How much will cities grow by mid-century, where, and what will that growth commit us to?
Findings
Global urban land could expand by 0.6–1.3 million km² (78%–171%) between 2015 and 2050 across shared socioeconomic pathways.
Environmental Research Letters, 2019↗
Tropical regions in the Southern Hemisphere face disproportionately high extreme-heat risk from compounding urbanization and climate warming.
Environmental Research Letters, 2019↗
Roughly 50–63% of newly expanded urban land worldwide is projected to replace existing cropland.
Nature Communications, 2020↗
Papers
- Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050Environmental Research Letters, 2019
- Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathwaysNature Communications, 2020
- Infrastructure reach and capacity pressure in sub-Saharan Africa's future urban expansionNature Communications, 2026 · in revision
Open questions
- Will infrastructure reach the places where the next wave of urban residents will live?
- Which expansion pathways keep the cities of 2050 cooler and less exposed?
